Studying why some people vote for a political party, and why others do not, has traditionally been one of the most intensely examined topics in political science. Voting behaviour includes analysing the patterns that occur during elections, which may be due to short- or long-term factors. While some researchers may emphasise the importance of long-term demographic factors, others may place more importance on short-term behaviour in influencing voting behaviour. Whilst there are numerous factors that determine how an individual may cast their vote, today we will be seeing which has the strongest influence in today’s political period.
Long-term factors include demographic factors that determine voting behaviour, such as social class and age.
Over time, it was clear that the main determinant of voting behaviour was social class due to the continuing trend of C2 and DE (lower class) voters voting for the Labour Party. This is due to the fact that the Labour Party’s policies may be favoured by the lower classes as typical Labour policies include an increase in welfare spending, which the lower classes primarily benefit from.
This trend was prominent in the 1979 election, in which the Conservatives, led by Thatcher, won across all social classes besides the DE voters. This clearly demonstrates that although Thatcher was immensely popular amongst most of the UK, the clear cuts on welfare spending lost her the DE voters. This shows that due to the differing policies in regard to welfare spending, between the Conservative and Labour parties, there was a consistent pattern that the lower classes voted Labour, and the upper classes voted Conservative.
However, in recent years, it has become clear that there has been an increase in class dealignment. Class dealignment signifies the weakening connection between social class and voting behaviour, primarily because other factors have taken a more prominent role in shaping how people vote.
This includes short-term factors, such as salience. Salient issues include noticing the incompetence of the rival parties through current events during election times. This was clearly seen in the 1979 election in which the Labour Party had lost due to the inability to control the trade unions and prevent the Winter of Discontent. Consequently, Thatcher won the 1979 election with a total of 339 seats in parliament. As such, this shows that if a party/ party leader is seen as incompetent, the electorate is highly unlikely to vote for the given party.
More recently, this was seen in the 2017 and 2019 elections where researchers witnessed the fall of the “Red Wall”. The “Red Wall” consisted of a row of industrial cities in the north of England that had voted for the Labour Party repeatedly. 63% of voters in the “red wall” cities had stated that the key reason why they did not vote for the Labour Party in the most recent elections was due to the scandals that had followed Jeremy Corbyn whilst he was Labour Party leader. In particular, this included the antisemitism scandal which saw a 24% drop in the opinion polls for Labour due to Corbyn’s recklessness and disrespect. This shows the impact of an incompetent party leader on the downfall of a party.
Hence, salient issues have resulted in class dealignment, indicating that social class is no longer an important factor in determining voter behaviour.
When it comes to gauging how age affects the way in which the electorate votes, we must fully understand how the main parties implement specific policies to retain their safe seats. More recently, this was evident by the introduction of voter ID. This includes every voter being required to bring an up-to-date piece of photographic ID to make sure their vote is counted. Valid forms of ID include a passport, driver’s license, and a 65+ railway card but don’t include a young person’s railway card. In doing so, the Conservative government (who had brought about this legislation) alienated the younger proportion of the electorate as only 67% of young people were aware of this new legislation.
Although Voter ID was passed in Parliament to reduce voter fraud, critics of Voter ID may argue that it was a strategic ploy by the Tories to reduce the political participation of younger voters, who are not typically Conservative voters. Younger voters are more likely to vote for the Labour Party due to the Labour Party standing for more social policies, such as tuition fees and climate change. This implies that age remains a determining factor in voting behaviour but due to recent policies, age may not be of as importance in the next election.
Researchers have provided numerous hypotheses for the influence of short-term factors on voting behaviour. The rational decision model and the psychological model are some of the most influential.
According to the rational choice model, voters aim to maximise their own financial gains. This indicates the selfish pursuit of voters, in the sense that all voters care for, is a party that will maintain an economy that benefits them. This is evident by a break election following every economic bust since the Thatcherite premiership. For example, following the 2008 financial crash, Labour lost its lead in the elections after 13 years of strong Labour governments.
Hence, this demonstrates that if a party is seen as incompetent in controlling the economy, they are likelier to be voted out of power in the next general election. Contemporarily, opinion polls show that the Conservative government of the day is unlikely to win the 2024 general election as they are expected to win only 26% of votes whilst the Labour party is predicted to win 45%. This reinforces the rational choice model due to the impacts of the cost-of-living crisis on the UK due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
The Conservative party’s downfall is further exacerbated, in regard to the rational choice model, as elderly voters are most impacted by the cost-of-living crisis due to differing inflation rates for different age groups. As 72% of adults over 65 vote for the Conservatives, the Tories are likely to lose a large proportion of these votes. A considerable section of the 65 and older population in the UK receives either a private or a government pension, which does rise to keep up with inflation but only after a significant delay.
With UK inflation having peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, maintaining the same purchasing power would’ve required an immediate 11.1% increase in pensions, but this was not the case. This made goods and services more expensive in the short term relative to their income, so they were not able to afford to maintain their prior living standards. When they are unable to pay for care and essential medications for the elderly, which are infrequently funded by the government, they often choose to vote otherwise.
Thus, it has been made clear that the rational choice model has proven that due to salient issues, in particular economic issues, voters are likely to adjust their voting behaviour.
According to the psychological model, voters are motivated by feelings, such as a strong sense of identification with a particular political party. Although this is a weaker hypothesis in comparison to the rational choice model, supporters of the psychological model would argue that it is otherwise a summary of many other factors that may influence voting behaviour. For example, a voter may feel particularly inclined to a political party if their views align with the party’s manifesto and hence may feel a sense of belonging to the party. This is primarily seen with social issues, such as climate change. Climate change activists may feel inclined to join the Green Party due to the alignment of views but also due to the sense of belonging that is provoked by being surrounded by individuals with similar views. This implies that the psychological model is alternatively seen as an umbrella hypothesis of many, less significant, short-term factors.
Another short-term factor that is included within the psychological model is socialisation. This alludes to the significant impact of the family on an individual’s future voting behaviour. For example, if a voter’s parents are strong members of a certain political party, it is likely that the individual will also tend to vote for the given party. Although other sociological agents impact socialisation, such as education, the family is the most influential agent. This implies that voting behaviour is usually similar between generations. Hence, this enforces the hypothesis of the psychological model.
Overall, it is evident that both short- and long-term factors hold importance in influencing voting behaviour and can be seen to have crucial roles. However, after carefully reviewing the main factors, it is clear that short-term factors are more significant in regard to influencing voting behaviour as seen by the changes in voting patterns between all general elections. Salient events, usually regarding the economy, triumph over all patterns in relation to other demographic factors that may have been significant in previous general elections. Presently, short-term factors remain the most important in determining voter behaviour.
